If you’ve been in schools over the last decade, you’ve felt the shift in math learning. Teachers talk about it, students feel it, and families notice it. But when you look at the long-term data, the story becomes even clearer: math achievement in New York has declined significantly over the last 15 years, and the drop isn’t random, it’s statistically meaningful.
As someone who teaches STEM and spends a lot of time analyzing policy and student outcomes, I always look for two things when dissecting data
- The trend line (what direction the scores are actually moving)
- The statistical significance (whether those changes are real or just noise).
In this case, both point in the same direction.
Figure 1: National Assessment of Educational Progress (NAEP), Grade 8 Mathematics, New York State Results (2009–2024).
The Trend Line
For eight years, math scores were relatively stable. Between 2009 and 2017, the state hovered around the low 280s, indicating small fluctuations, but nothing dramatic. But after 2017, the line breaks sharply downward and by 2024, the average score has fallen to 271, the lowest point in the 15-year window.
This sharp decline over the last 8 years is notable because this data is Grade 8. these declining numbers represent more than performance on a single test.
The new NAEP data signals how well-prepared students are to enter high school-level math, which will determine Students’ trajectory with advanced course-taking, Access to AP courses, and pathways to STEM majors. Therefore, This Steep Decline In Math Performance is an academic concern as well as an early warning indicator about the STEM pipeline into high school and, ultimately, into college and the workforce.
Before I continue to make a fuss about these declining math scores, I need to be a sound researcher and study the statistical significance of These Declining Math scores.
Statistical Significance
Table 1. Pairwise score differences and statistical significance comparisons for New York State Grade 8 NAEP Mathematics average scale scores, 2009–2024.
Source: National Assessment of Educational Progress (NAEP), State Snapshot Data Tools (2009–2024).
The above table of year-to-year comparisons provides a second layer of evidence of decline in math scores in New york state, And Honestly, This Data is harder to argue with. Each cell in the above table shows The score difference between two years and The p-value (how likely it is that the difference happened by chance).
Across almost all comparisons involving the 2022 and 2024 cohorts, the p-values fall below 0.01, and often below 0.001. That means these declines in math performance are not random.
2024 vs. 2009
- Difference: –12 points
- P-value: 0.0000
- This is a real, statistically significant drop.
2024 vs. 2017
- Difference: –11 points
- P-value: 0.0000
- This confirms 2017 as a turning point.
2022 vs. 2011
- Difference: –6 points
- P-value: 0.0023
- Clear evidence of decline.
When nearly every comparison between recent years and earlier cohorts shows p-values this low, it leaves no room for interpretation. Grade 8 math performance today is meaningfully worse than it was a decade ago
Why This Matters for Equity and High School Success
Because this decline in Math performance is happening in Grade 8, it has direct and immediate implications for high school coursework. Specifically the following courses or assessments can be drastically affected by decreased performance in grade 8 math:
- Algebra I placement
- Access to Geometry and advanced math
- AP/IB STEM course eligibility
- SAT/ACT math performance
- High school graduation pathways
- College remediation rates
When statewide averages fall by more than ten points, it is students who are already Facing Structural Barriers (Multilingual Learners, Black And Latino Students, Students With Disabilities, And Students From Low-Income Communities) Who Are the ones hit hardest. In future blog posts, I Will Explore Causes Of This Declining Math Trend, Effects On vulnerable student Populations, Potential Policy Solutions, And Actionable Next Steps To Lobby The State Legislature To Make a Change.
Closing
New York’s Grade 8 math scores have declined sharply and meaningfully since 2017. Left unaddressed, these declines will compound as students move into Algebra I and beyond. But with intentional, equity-centered policy decisions, this trajectory can shift. Eighth grade is the foundation for high school math success. Right now, that foundation is cracking, but I truly Believe the state of American Math education is not beyond repair.
Until next time,
Jean-Pierre Jacob
Advancing Equity With Policy 
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